Development of an Employment Forecast Model

New Editions is building an employment forecast model for the state of New Jersey. Job growth projections in any calendar year will be developed based on developments in economic activity and employment in New York State, New York City, and New Jersey. The forecast also includes sectoral trends that affect employment in the region, including trends in housing, finance and new media as well as potential risks to the employment outlook. To measure economic activity in the region, a number of economic indicators are used, including the Federal Reserve Bank of New York indexes of coincident economic indicators, reported monthly and constructed separately for New York State, New York City, and New Jersey. Each of these indexes is a single composite measure computed from four variables: payroll employment, the unemployment rate, average weekly hours worked in manufacturing, and real wage and salary earnings.